Saturday, March 25, 2006

Prediction registry

David brin suggests a prediction registry is urgently needed

I agree - what we need however is concrete steps towards setting one up rather than just discussion.

Maybe you can start with a small set of people - maybe presidential candidates - and take testable statement / theme from each of their speeches in a sort of wikipedia sort of way (so there is a general consensus on what is the statement). Then after a while encourage politicians to speak to the data base "you can quote me on that" or you can "wikipredict" me on that (in which case the statement would of course be exactly as worded).

You have to start out small though in order to be credible - otherwise you get really bad analysis on a large number of people. Besides this only takes a few really dedicated people to at least somewhat work.

I think many people would be interested to work on this - maybe it could be a university project, if that was the case you could fill it with people with goals other than partisanship. Otherwise you have to hope they will just cancel out.


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8:08 PM  

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