Tuesday, September 02, 2014

NZ election

A New Election is coming up. So first things first - predictions. National to win with NZfirst supporting them.

 Same prediction I have had for the last year or two.

 It will be very interesting to see what Dotcom comes up with in his presentation - but in the end (unless it is incredible) - there are some basic principles underlying what is going on here.

1) The key (potential) swing voters can't stand the Greens and dislike the idea of a complex coalition. These voters are the type of person that (in their male incarnation) quite like Shane Jones (although he would have been a bit of a loose cannon). They believe in common sense and they want Jobs over protecting the environment and they want policies that are firm with the unemployed and the criminal to provide the right incentives. they also want their government to be careful with their money and they may not particularly like unions.

2) Further to the above the Key swing party (NZfirst) also doesn't like the greens. This makes forming a left leaning mega coalition rather difficult. It would be far easier to just negotiate with the largest party.

3) Labour can't do the things they should know they need to do to win. First labour has a lot of activists who are on the left of the party in many respects, or are on the left in regard to their own section of labour policy. In particular they have to stay onside with unions and they can't distance themselves from the greens. Even if the political advisors knows that this is what it would take to win they cant turn their ship as easily as national can. And now - in making their party more democratic, labor finds it has made itself even less able to win elections than they already were.

4) Regardless, the national political machine is much more professional and talented at the game. Of course the Dirty politics scandal shows that they can sometimes get a little impressed by their own abilities - but in the end National is still well in control.


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