Saturday, September 17, 2005

A potential working government

labour 50 seats
NZ first 7 seats
United 3 seats
progressives 1 seat

total 61 seats plus split opposition - effectively a majority

a very mixed opposition that would never combine on a single issue result - a plausible government.

other possibility
labour 50 seats plus control of the government
greens 6 seats
maori 4 seats
progressives 1 seat

a quite far left and highly unstable government. Probably it would rely upon NZ first suport on confidence issues.

OR

labour 50 seats
greens 6 seats
NZfirst 7 seats
progressives 1 seats

coalition from hell - but more stable than the one with the maori party.

I suggest national may gain one seat on specials (shaking things up a bit)

if so there is the potential for

National 50 seats
NZ first 7 seats
Act 2 seats
United 3 seats

62 seats (a majority)
awkward but not impossible coalition

AND if the greens fail to meet the threshold

National 52 seats
NZ first 7 seats
Act 2 seats
United 3 seats

A clear majority

1 Comments:

Blogger Millie said...

What amazes me is no comment on the effect of the overhang. National, NZ first, Act, United, 39.7+5.8+1.5+2.8 = 49.8%
Left parties Labour, Greens, Progressives, Maori = 40.7+5.0+1.3+2.0=50%.
A dead heat, but, Maori in the Maori sets get two votes, ie. 2% means 2 seats plus 2 seat overhang (electorate seats) gives them more seats!! And next election will only get worse for the centre right.

6:15 AM  

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