Potential special votes totals required to create a right lead government
I suggest realistically (I am open to further information) you may get special votes like this assuming the 215000 total is correct
Total 215000
Labour 77100
National 100200
NZfirst 8000
greens 13000
maori 5200
united 3350
act 2500
progressives 200
this is about the minumum required to permit a right lead govt and is a swing of 1 seat and the lead from labour to national and a win in the special votes of 23000 or somewhat over 10% differential as I suggested earlier. features are predicted drops in NZfirst act and labour percent of the vote and a rise in green and maori and national suport as a percentage.
Total 215000
Labour 77100
National 100200
NZfirst 8000
greens 13000
maori 5200
united 3350
act 2500
progressives 200
this is about the minumum required to permit a right lead govt and is a swing of 1 seat and the lead from labour to national and a win in the special votes of 23000 or somewhat over 10% differential as I suggested earlier. features are predicted drops in NZfirst act and labour percent of the vote and a rise in green and maori and national suport as a percentage.
posted by Genius at 6:21 AM
2 Comments:
done some further analysis and I reckon that the Maori will lose one of their overhang seats. Maori electorates have a higher relative % of specials than normal. This should be enough to tip the balance
Good point sage. although they dont exactly "loose it" they just convert it into a normal seat and therefore waste it. I think they will do well in the specials too.
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