Friday, December 08, 2006


Election predictions

Mitt Romney to win the republican nomination snatching it from under McCain's nose. Main reason will be a grass roots effort to prevent McCain the 'anti-republican' getting the republican nomination with lots of people saying 'better to loose than to select McCain!’
Hilary to win the Democrat nomination with minimal effort. She will probably pick Obama as a VP because gore probably won't be available and Edwards will be too far behind. But if Edwards’s fights hard he could get VP since a black VP could be a slight electoral negative.
Hilary to win the election after the republicans rip themselves apart in the primaries and Hilary comes out unscathed. Republicans put up fight with lots of reasonably successful attacks on Hilary but they just don’t have enough left to win.

Conservatives win as labor implodes. They don’t get all that high a percentage though - saved by FPP.

Labor paints key as a 'hollow man' that will screw you if he gets into power and middle ground starts to buy into it. NZ first dies and United Future slightly increases its number of seats with a little bit of feel good television appearances. The greens increase their vote as well and the Maori party still has an overhang.
Key gets strong support from the right but despite efforts to sound centrist he just can’t win enough of that center vote. Green voters keep voting green, unionists and young families and women keep voting labor etc

In the end labour + Maori + greens are enough to win the lection. Maori party negotiates hard but can’t bring themselves to go with national after Hui mention that that would be political (if not physical) suicide.

Haven’t looked at the details much yet but on the information I have a coalition victory - again. Labour looses the plot going into the election - again, Coalition finishes strong.


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