Saturday, October 11, 2008

Quantum mechanics and Lotto

Here is a interesting hypothetical argument for not buying a lotto ticket - or possibly how you could bend the odds of winning lotto in your favour.

First let me introduce you to the Born rule which put really simply says

"I could predict probabilistically which world I would find myself in. Out of all the times the world was about to split 2:1, into a side of two-thirds width and a side of one-third width, I [would find] myself on the thicker side around 4 times out of 5, and on the thinner side around 1 time out of 5. When the world was about to split 3:1, I [would find] myself on the thicker side 9 times out of 10, and on the thinner side 1 time out of 10."

Or put even more simply
if I had a random lotto generator that could produce numbers and it showed 1 5/6 times and 6 1 out of 6 times my subjective experience of that would be to see 1 only 1 out of 26 times. If bob offers be 1:7 odds on that I subjectively should accept even if objectively it sounds stupid.

So at first glance it would seem I could create a situation where I artificially make results where I win money to be always part of the majority if situations - and thus artificially increase my probability of winning.

the solution might be to have a system that records the result of the lotto machine and instantly triggers the death of one of a set of Schrodinger's animals (mice stuck in a box separated from any information exchange with the universe) or, more humanely, produces a word that I must them memorize.

OR if that is impossible - I should never by lotto - its always a subjective loosing bet


Blogger Rumplestiltskin said...

Hey Genius, I don't see how the death of a rat would make YOU win. Your chances of finding a live rat in the box would be equal to the chances of winning the lottery. The REAL quantum way by which you could win the lottery would be to go in the box yourself...

1:16 AM  

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