Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Climate change: urgent

Norightturn highlights a IPCC report on climate change. I agree climate change is an issue - still I see a bit of the classic green strategy here of creating artificial targets and claiming that they are fundimental scientific ones.
First - there is no such thing as a "safe zone" for temperature change - or rather, if htere is a nearby tipping point (which I doubt) the IPCC has no idea where that tipping point is and neither does anyone else. So cutting emisions by 3% a year might be too litle too late or it might be easily enough. I know htat makes the argument less forceful - but I dont think we should be lying either.
Second - we talk about temperature rises by the end of hte century - that doesn't matter. What matters is the total temperature rise in the long term or if we are very selfish - the temperature rise in our lifetime.
Third - the temperature rate rise of 5.5 - 7.1 C is menitoned but hte rise with the plan that is suggested is sugesting is not - I suspect it is somthing like 3-4 C, so the marginal difference is a less impressive 2.5-3 C

Anyway I repeat my position on global warming that it really needs pragmatists and not socialists at the helm if we want somthing done. treaties like the kyoto protocol are flawed.


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