Saturday, September 17, 2005

Special votes

The Poll bludger has a good summary of the election. he also writes in comments on timblair's site

In 2002, the Greens got 6.5 per cent of “normal” votes and 12.0 per cent of “special”. So I would be very surprised if they ended up falling below 5.0 per cent from this point.

Labour also did better on specials than normal votes in 2002 (42.1 per cent versus 41.4 per cent), and the Nationals slightly worse (20.5 per cent versus 21.1 per cent).

thanks William.. informative as always.

I howeer suggest national will do much better this time. specials depend in part on the organization of the party (explaining why a shattered national did not do well) and other parties will presure green support this time. BUT it probably wont be a drastic change to the trend so not enough to change seating in parliment.


Anonymous The Poll Bludger said...

Thanks for that, Genius. More facts have come to my attention since I left that post on Tim Blair: the Greens' strong performance on special votes in 2002 was boosted by the fact that the election coincided with the university holiday period. In 1999, the Greens finished election night just below the threshold on 4.9 per cent but got 6.9 per cent of special votes and finished on 5.2 per cent - so still a better performance on special than normal votes, but not to the same degree. But that election was held on November 27 -would that have been university holidays as well?

9:06 PM  
Blogger Genius said...

now we are at the beginning of the second half of the second semester.

27 NOV is just after (a few days) final exams for some uni's a couple of weeks for others that I know of.

12:31 AM  

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