Tories to win next election

Apparently the Tories are going to win the next British election (by this I mean more % than UK labour). How do I get to this?
well
http://www.backingblair.co.uk/dave/
the labor supporters seem to be breaking with the formulae that has won them the last few elections - the best strategy in politics
I term it the "who's that guy leading the other party?" strategy.

Fundamentally, if you are on top and the incumbent, you don't want people to associate vivid imagery with the opposition leader - you want them to forget his name.
If the labor party is preparing to "play the man and not the ball" they are scoring an own goal. Worse yet – maybe they know that already – so it is also a bad sign that they think that they have to.

I know it is a long way out - but I do believe I have been right in every major election since I started blogging..... I even remember picking a labour proped up by "NZfirst and co" sitaution.